Emmy predictions: Who will get nominated (and why)

UPDATE: The results are in! Congratulations to James Hibberd, who successfully predicted 28 out of 38 major nominees — including an impressive 6 out of 7 for Best Comedy Series — and came away with more correct guesses in every category. Lynette Rice also guessed well on both comedy and drama series nominees — and named quite a few of our most egregious snubs.

EARLIER: With Emmy nominations being revealed Thursday morning, our TV experts Lynette Rice and James Hibberd turned in their predictions for who will get a flood of congratulatory emails tomorrow — and why.

First up, here’s Rice with her nomination and winner predictions:

Outstanding Drama Series

House of Cards

Game of Thrones

Orange is the New Black

Mad Men

The Good Wife

Sons of Anarchy

Empire

Who will win: House of Cards, even though the consistently superior Game of Thrones and Sons of Anarchy and The Good Wife are just as deserving. (For Empire, it’s enough to just get the nomination).

Outstanding Comedy Series:

Modern Family

Veep

Louie

The Big Bang Theory

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Mom

Silicon Valley

Who will win: Veep. It’s hard to bet against the incumbent, Modern Family, but it feels like Emmy voters will finally realize the HBO deserves more than just a trophy for its killer star, Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Outstanding Actress in Comedy

Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

Anna Faris (Mom)

Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer)

Who will win: Ellie Kemper. Why? I think Emmy likes to save her surprise wins in the actor categories, and the Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt star will finally unseat the Veep queen, who’s already sick with trophies.

Outstanding Actor in Comedy

Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Louis C.K. (Louie)

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)

Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)

William H. Macy (Shameless)

Who will win: Louis C.K. Because he’s a master classmen who’s not sick enough with trophies.

Outstanding Actress in Drama

Robin Wright (House of Cards)

Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)

Taraji P. Henson (Empire)

Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)

Ruth Wilson (The Affair)

Kerry Washington (Scandal)

Who will win: Robin Wright. Because she deserved the prize two seasons ago, and we fans are done waiting.

Outstanding Actor in Drama

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Jon Hamm (Mad Men)

Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)

Dominic West (The Affair)

James Spader (The Blacklist)

Terrence Howard (Empire)

Who will win: Kevin Spacey. Because Emmy never thought Jon Hamm deserved an Emmy for his superior work on Mad Men, so why give it to him now after his final season? Also, Spacey is deliciously evil.

********** And now Hibberd’s picks ***********

Outstanding Drama Series

Downton Abbey

Empire

Game of Thrones

House of Cards

Mad Men

Orange is the New Black

The Americans

Analysis: The Emmys have added a seventh slot this year for the best series categories, and the conclusion of Breaking Bad left a big hole for a new winner. Fox’s Empire is an easy choice to step onto the list. The rest seems to create itself based on last year’s noms. For the lucky number seven slot, I’m going to play what’s considered a longshot among the prognosticators and bet on FX’s The Americans, which had its best season yet. For the win, I’d love to see perpetual bridesmaid Thrones finally take this category—it’s playing on a whole other level, at least production wise, than any show on TV. Empire‘s enormous success makes a strong case. But I think Mad Men will reclaim its crown for its final lap.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Big Bang Theory

Louie

Modern Family

Transparent

Silicon Valley

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Veep

Analysis: The category expansion will definitely make room for Transparent, while I expect several returning favorites to populate the rest. I suspect the big question is whether Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt or The CW’s Jane the Virgin takes the seventh slot, and I’m going to bet on Schmidt. For the win, Modern Family is always the easy choice, and I think Lynette is right that this could be the year for Veep. But I would love to see Silicon Valley disrupt the race.

Outstanding Actress in Comedy

Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer)

Analysis: I’m swapping out potential traditional nomination bets like Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) and Melissa McCarthy (Mike and Molly) for newcomer dark horses Schumer (who has plenty of deserved all-around career buzz this year) and Kemper (because Netflix clearly knows how to get their stars nominated).Also adding Rodriguez given her Golden Globes love. Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback) is also favored for a slot, but will she make the cut? Still, even with the newcomers on my list, Louis-Dreyfus is heavily favored to win for the fourth year in a row and I’m not sure any of the other performers have enough wind to topple that unless voters have repetition fatigue.

Outstanding Actor in Comedy

Louis CK (Louie)

Billy Crystal (The Comedians)

Will Forte (Last Man on Earth)

William H. Macy (Shameless)

Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)

Analysis: Tambor, Parsons and Louis are locks. Then things get weird. I suspect a luminary like Crystal will get in for his freshman season even though critics didn’t love The Comedians. Will Matt LeBlanc get nominated for Showtime’s Episodes again? Probably, though I took a chance by not including him. My sixth-slot choice, Forte, is a Lotto-ticket purchase, and I’d also love to see Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley) or Anthony Anderson (Black-ish) squeak in there. To win: Tambor.

Outstanding Actress in Drama

Claire Danes (Homeland)

Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)

Taraji P. Henson (Empire)

Robin Wright (House of Cards)

Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)

Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)

Also, some outside odds to Ruth Wilson, who is excellent on the under-viewed The Affair. This is probably down to Henson vs. Davis, and both delivered riveting performances in the freshman seasons of breakout dramas. Davis is my pick for the win.

Outstanding Actor in Drama

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)

Jon Hamm (Mad Men)

Terrence Howard (Empire)

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

Clive Owen (The Knick)

One hopes Bob Odenkirk and Terrence Howard will bust into this category for their freshman series. Odds are very high Jeff Daniels will secure a spot for the final season of HBO’s The Newsroom — but why play it safe? Owen is a fun dark horse bet to add. As for the winner, this must finally be Hamm’s year, right? The Academy wouldn’t be that cruel, to deny a man with seven previous nominations for Mad Men and no wins … right?